A relevant dispensation is a dispensation delivered on a basket of products defined as markers of a syndrome.
This type of monitoring makes it possible both to anticipate epidemiological peaks and also their decreases, in advance of the phase. In fact, there is a time lag between the moment when the patient is treated and when he is treated.
But also not to take into account products that are irrelevant to the syndrome studied.
Thanks to the modeling of time series (of which you will find more details on the following link: http://success.openhealth.fr/fr/articles/3633991-etude-des-series-temporelles ), it is also possible to assess the number of relevant supernumerary dispensations compared to to a "normal" situation.
For week 1 of a given year, we have 22,000.00 dispensations, all products combined.
For week 2 of the same year, we have 23,000.00 dispensations, all products combined.
We therefore have an evolution of + 5.2% [(23,000,000 / 22,000,000) - 1].
But this evolution is not relevant to the syndrome studied because it includes all the products and does not allow the study of a statistical correlation with this syndrome.
The definition of a basket of marker products allows a more detailed analysis of these correlations.
For week 1 of a given year, we have 4,000,000 dispensations, all products combined.
For week 2 of the same year, we have 5,000,000 dispensations, all products combined.
We have an evolution of + 25.0% (5,000,000 / 4,000,000) of relevant dispensations .
To assess the number of relevant supernumerary dispensations related to this syndrome, we need to model the situation without the last week onset of the syndrome inflection.
Consider that modeling the number of bare week 2 dispensations leads to a result of 4,100,000 relevant dispensations, then:
Nb relevant supernumerary dispensations =
Nb relevant dispensations observed - Nb relevant dispensations modeled
Either 900,000 relevant dispensations supernumerary (5,000,000 - 4,100,000)
Data from pharmacies.
Possibility of filtering data on or off prescription.
Metropolitan France data excluding Corsica & DROM-COM
Applicable on baskets of products in human medicine, veterinary medicine or non-medicine
PHARMA only, mainland France except Corsica