The number of missing deaths is the number of deaths that have not yet been recorded at a time t.
Please note, therefore the back data provided by INSEE may be modified over time.
There is a temporal asynchronism between the date of death of a person and the moment when the death is recorded. However, it is possible to estimate the number of additional deaths to come for the day studied. This asynchronism can be linked to several factors:
- The death census time can be done electronically or by post (longer)
- French people living abroad who have died are counted with a delay
- The case of missing persons (who are declared dead after a certain time or who can be declared dead but found later)
- Judicial cases
One way to estimate so-called "missing" deaths is to refer to the previous time period. Our data is obtained monthly via insee .
We refer to the data of the previous months to assess the number of deaths which have been recorded in addition.
- After the January census, we can see this:
- As of December 31 of the previous year, 99% of deaths were not reported
- As of December 30 of the previous year, 95% of deaths were unreported
- As of December 29 of the previous year, 90% of deaths were unreported
- As of December 1 of the previous year, 5% of deaths were not declared
- Thus the operation carried out in January is as follows:
- As of January 31, it is considered that 99% are not declared
- As of January 30, it is considered that 95% are not declared
- As of January 29, 90% of deaths are not declared
- As of January 1, 5% of deaths are not declared
This operation is carried out over 180 days, after this period the number of deaths may change by a number lower than 0.1%.
For the last month with deaths, the data are aggregated and the so-called "missing" deaths are distributed equally among all the days of the current month.
If the modeling indicates a lower number than the INSEE publication, then the number published by INSEE will prevail.
The March deliverable was published by INSEE. In February, 20% more deaths were recorded.
The modeling in March will perform the following calculation:
nbDecesModel = nbDeces published in March / (1 - 0.2)
March has 31 days, so the modeling will consider that there is nbDecesModel / 31 deaths per day.
For the month of February and the previous months, we carried out the same operation without adding to the month. Thus February 29 will be compared to January 31, compared to the previous deliverable 98% of deaths were published. So the model will re-evaluate the number of deaths by 2% for February 29.
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